Serveur d'exploration H2N2

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Human Mobility Networks, Travel Restrictions, and the Global Spread of 2009 H1N1 Pandemic

Identifieur interne : 000183 ( France/Analysis ); précédent : 000182; suivant : 000184

Human Mobility Networks, Travel Restrictions, and the Global Spread of 2009 H1N1 Pandemic

Auteurs : Paolo Bajardi [France] ; Chiara Poletto [Italie] ; Jose J. Ramasco [Espagne] ; Michele Tizzoni [Italie] ; Vittoria Colizza [France] ; Alessandro Vespignani [États-Unis]

Source :

RBID : Hal:hal-00562226

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

After the emergence of the H1N1 influenza in 2009, some countries responded with travel-related controls during the early stage of the outbreak in an attempt to contain or slow down its international spread. These controls along with self-imposed travel limitations contributed to a decline of about 40% in international air traffic to/from Mexico following the international alert. However, no containment was achieved by such restrictions and the virus was able to reach pandemic proportions in a short time. When gauging the value and efficacy of mobility and travel restrictions it is crucial to rely on epidemic models that integrate the wide range of features characterizing human mobility and the many options available to public health organizations for responding to a pandemic. Here we present a comprehensive computational and theoretical study of the role of travel restrictions in halting and delaying pandemics by using a model that explicitly integrates air travel and short-range mobility data with high-resolution demographic data across the world and that is validated by the accumulation of data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. We explore alternative scenarios for the 2009 H1N1 pandemic by assessing the potential impact of mobility restrictions that vary with respect to their magnitude and their position in the pandemic timeline. We provide a quantitative discussion of the delay obtained by different mobility restrictions and the likelihood of containing outbreaks of infectious diseases at their source, confirming the limited value and feasibility of international travel restrictions. These results are rationalized in the theoretical framework characterizing the invasion dynamics of the epidemics at the metapopulation level.


Url:
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0016591


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Hal:hal-00562226

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<ref type="url">http://pti.iu.edu/</ref>
</desc>
<listRelation>
<relation active="#struct-300689" type="direct"></relation>
<relation active="#struct-566099" type="indirect"></relation>
</listRelation>
<tutelles>
<tutelle active="#struct-300689" type="direct">
<org type="institution" xml:id="struct-300689" status="VALID">
<orgName>Indiana University [Bloomington]</orgName>
<desc>
<address>
<addrLine>107 S. Indiana Avenue, Bloomington, IN 47405-7000</addrLine>
<country key="US"></country>
</address>
<ref type="url">https://www.indiana.edu/</ref>
</desc>
<listRelation>
<relation active="#struct-566099" type="direct"></relation>
</listRelation>
</org>
</tutelle>
<tutelle active="#struct-566099" type="indirect">
<org type="regroupinstitution" xml:id="struct-566099" status="VALID">
<orgName>Indiana University System</orgName>
<desc>
<address>
<country key="US"></country>
</address>
<ref type="url">https://www.iu.edu/</ref>
</desc>
</org>
</tutelle>
</tutelles>
</hal:affiliation>
<country>États-Unis</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<idno type="DOI">10.1371/journal.pone.0016591</idno>
<series>
<title level="j">PLoS ONE</title>
<idno type="ISSN">1932-6203</idno>
<imprint>
<date type="datePub">2011</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc>
<textClass>
<keywords scheme="mix" xml:lang="en">
<term>Air travel</term>
<term>Epidemiology</term>
<term>H1N1</term>
<term>Human mobility</term>
<term>Infectious disease control</term>
<term>Infectious disease epidemiology</term>
<term>Mexico</term>
<term>Probability distribution</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="Wicri" type="topic" xml:lang="fr">
<term>épidémiologie</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="Wicri" type="geographic" xml:lang="fr">
<term>Mexique</term>
</keywords>
</textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">
<p>After the emergence of the H1N1 influenza in 2009, some countries responded with travel-related controls during the early stage of the outbreak in an attempt to contain or slow down its international spread. These controls along with self-imposed travel limitations contributed to a decline of about 40% in international air traffic to/from Mexico following the international alert. However, no containment was achieved by such restrictions and the virus was able to reach pandemic proportions in a short time. When gauging the value and efficacy of mobility and travel restrictions it is crucial to rely on epidemic models that integrate the wide range of features characterizing human mobility and the many options available to public health organizations for responding to a pandemic. Here we present a comprehensive computational and theoretical study of the role of travel restrictions in halting and delaying pandemics by using a model that explicitly integrates air travel and short-range mobility data with high-resolution demographic data across the world and that is validated by the accumulation of data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. We explore alternative scenarios for the 2009 H1N1 pandemic by assessing the potential impact of mobility restrictions that vary with respect to their magnitude and their position in the pandemic timeline. We provide a quantitative discussion of the delay obtained by different mobility restrictions and the likelihood of containing outbreaks of infectious diseases at their source, confirming the limited value and feasibility of international travel restrictions. These results are rationalized in the theoretical framework characterizing the invasion dynamics of the epidemics at the metapopulation level.</p>
</div>
</front>
</TEI>
<affiliations>
<list>
<country>
<li>Espagne</li>
<li>France</li>
<li>Italie</li>
<li>États-Unis</li>
</country>
<region>
<li>Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur</li>
</region>
<settlement>
<li>Marseille</li>
</settlement>
<orgName>
<li>Université d'Aix-Marseille</li>
</orgName>
</list>
<tree>
<country name="France">
<region name="Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur">
<name sortKey="Bajardi, Paolo" sort="Bajardi, Paolo" uniqKey="Bajardi P" first="Paolo" last="Bajardi">Paolo Bajardi</name>
</region>
<name sortKey="Colizza, Vittoria" sort="Colizza, Vittoria" uniqKey="Colizza V" first="Vittoria" last="Colizza">Vittoria Colizza</name>
</country>
<country name="Italie">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Poletto, Chiara" sort="Poletto, Chiara" uniqKey="Poletto C" first="Chiara" last="Poletto">Chiara Poletto</name>
</noRegion>
<name sortKey="Tizzoni, Michele" sort="Tizzoni, Michele" uniqKey="Tizzoni M" first="Michele" last="Tizzoni">Michele Tizzoni</name>
</country>
<country name="Espagne">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Ramasco, Jose J" sort="Ramasco, Jose J" uniqKey="Ramasco J" first="Jose J." last="Ramasco">Jose J. Ramasco</name>
</noRegion>
</country>
<country name="États-Unis">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Vespignani, Alessandro" sort="Vespignani, Alessandro" uniqKey="Vespignani A" first="Alessandro" last="Vespignani">Alessandro Vespignani</name>
</noRegion>
</country>
</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>

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